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Sporting KC II vs The Town — MLS Next Pro 2022

Sporting KC II
Sporting KC II
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
The Town
The Town
8/28/2022MLS Next ProMLS Next Pro · Round 23Mercy Victory Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Sporting KC II30%
×Draw22%
The Town48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting KC II
1.53
The Town
1.98

The Town creates 29% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 54 away

creates per match

Sporting KC II
1.60
The Town
1.80

allows per match

Sporting KC II
2.15
The Town
1.46

finishing

Sporting KC II+0.00on par
The Town+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting KC II ↓

The Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Sporting KC II or draw
52%
Sporting KC II or The Town
78%
Draw or The Town
70%

Winning margin

Sporting KC II wins by 2+
14%
The Town wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Sporting KC II 1+ goals
78%
Sporting KC II 2+ goals
45%
Sporting KC II 3+ goals
20%
The Town 1+ goals
86%
The Town 2+ goals
59%
The Town 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Sporting KC II (draw refunded)
38%
The Town (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting KC II at home — creates 1.60, concedes 2.15 · 52 matches

The Town away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.46 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting KC II attack 1.60 + The Town defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.53

The Town attack 1.80 + Sporting KC II defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sporting KC II scores more
30%
level
22%
The Town scores more
48%

The Town at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "The Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sporting KC II vs The Town

The Town beat Sporting KC II 4-1 in MLS Next Pro on August 28, 2022.

The match was played at Mercy Victory Field in Kansas City, Missouri.