Sporting KC II 1–1 St. Louis City II

Sporting KC II

Pens

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

St. Louis City II

9/24/2023

MLS Next Pro · Round 38Children's Mercy Victory Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Sporting KC II32%

×Draw21%

St. Louis City II46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting KC IIExpected goals in this matchSt. Louis City II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

2.04

Sporting KC II

1.68

St. Louis City II

2.04

St. Louis City II creates 21% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 54 away

1.60

creates per match

1.94

2.15

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Sporting KC II

1.60

St. Louis City II

1.94

allows per match

Sporting KC II

2.15

St. Louis City II

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting KC II+0.00on par

St. Louis City II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting KC II ↓

St. Louis City II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Sporting KC II or draw

54%

Sporting KC II or St. Louis City II

79%

Draw or St. Louis City II

68%

Winning margin

Sporting KC II wins by 2+

16%

St. Louis City II wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Sporting KC II 1+ goals

81%

Sporting KC II 2+ goals

50%

Sporting KC II 3+ goals

24%

St. Louis City II 1+ goals

87%

St. Louis City II 2+ goals

60%

St. Louis City II 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Sporting KC II (draw refunded)

41%

St. Louis City II (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting KC II at home — creates 1.60, concedes 2.15 · 52 matches

St. Louis City II away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.76 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting KC II attack 1.60 + St. Louis City II defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.68

St. Louis City II attack 1.94 + Sporting KC II defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sporting KC II scores more

32%

level

21%

St. Louis City II scores more

46%

St. Louis City II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "St. Louis City II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff