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Sporting KC II vs Saint Louis — USL Championship 2018

Sporting KC II
Sporting KC II
FT
3 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Saint Louis
Saint Louis
9/15/2018USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 48Children's Mercy Park (Kansas City, Kansas)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Sporting KC II43%
×Draw25%
Saint Louis32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting KC II
1.52
Saint Louis
1.28

Sporting KC II creates 19% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 45 away

creates per match

Sporting KC II
1.52
Saint Louis
0.93

allows per match

Sporting KC II
1.63
Saint Louis
1.51

finishing

Sporting KC II+0.00on par
Saint Louis+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting KC II ↓

Saint Louis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Sporting KC II or draw
68%
Sporting KC II or Saint Louis
75%
Draw or Saint Louis
57%

Winning margin

Sporting KC II wins by 2+
21%
Saint Louis wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Sporting KC II 1+ goals
78%
Sporting KC II 2+ goals
45%
Sporting KC II 3+ goals
20%
Saint Louis 1+ goals
72%
Saint Louis 2+ goals
37%
Saint Louis 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sporting KC II (draw refunded)
57%
Saint Louis (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting KC II at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.63 · 52 matches

Saint Louis away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.51 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting KC II attack 1.52 + Saint Louis defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.52

Saint Louis attack 0.93 + Sporting KC II defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sporting KC II scores more
43%
level
25%
Saint Louis scores more
32%

Sporting KC II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sporting KC II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sporting KC II 3 – 4 Saint Louis

Saint Louis beat Sporting KC II 4-3 in USL Championship on September 15, 2018.

The match was played at Children's Mercy Park (Kansas City, Kansas).