Sporting KC II 1–1 North Texas: Result & Stats

Sporting KC II

Pens

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

North Texas

9/29/2024

MLS Next Pro · Round 39Children's Mercy Victory Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Sporting KC II35%

×Draw23%

North Texas42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting KC IIExpected goals in this matchNorth Texas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.75

Sporting KC II

1.57

North Texas

1.75

North Texas creates 11% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 50 away

1.60

creates per match

1.36

2.15

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Sporting KC II

1.60

North Texas

1.36

allows per match

Sporting KC II

2.15

North Texas

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting KC II+0.00on par

North Texas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting KC II ↓

North Texas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Sporting KC II or draw

58%

Sporting KC II or North Texas

77%

Draw or North Texas

65%

Winning margin

Sporting KC II wins by 2+

17%

North Texas wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Sporting KC II 1+ goals

79%

Sporting KC II 2+ goals

46%

Sporting KC II 3+ goals

21%

North Texas 1+ goals

83%

North Texas 2+ goals

52%

North Texas 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Sporting KC II (draw refunded)

45%

North Texas (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting KC II at home — creates 1.60, concedes 2.15 · 52 matches

North Texas away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.54 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting KC II attack 1.60 + North Texas defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.57

North Texas attack 1.36 + Sporting KC II defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sporting KC II scores more

35%

level

23%

North Texas scores more

42%

North Texas at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "North Texas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff