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Sporting KC II vs Austin II — MLS Next Pro 2022

Sporting KC II
Sporting KC II
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Austin II
Austin II
4/2/2023MLS Next ProMLS Next Pro · Round 2Rock Chalk Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Sporting KC II31%
×Draw23%
Austin II45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting KC II
1.40
Austin II
1.73

Austin II creates 24% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 36 away

creates per match

Sporting KC II
1.60
Austin II
1.31

allows per match

Sporting KC II
2.15
Austin II
1.19

finishing

Sporting KC II+0.00on par
Austin II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting KC II ↓

Austin II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Sporting KC II or draw
55%
Sporting KC II or Austin II
77%
Draw or Austin II
69%

Winning margin

Sporting KC II wins by 2+
14%
Austin II wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Sporting KC II 1+ goals
75%
Sporting KC II 2+ goals
41%
Sporting KC II 3+ goals
17%
Austin II 1+ goals
82%
Austin II 2+ goals
52%
Austin II 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Sporting KC II (draw refunded)
41%
Austin II (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting KC II at home — creates 1.60, concedes 2.15 · 52 matches

Austin II away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.19 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting KC II attack 1.60 + Austin II defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.40

Austin II attack 1.31 + Sporting KC II defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sporting KC II scores more
31%
level
23%
Austin II scores more
45%

Austin II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Austin II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

MLS Next Pro: Sporting KC II 1–1 Austin II

Sporting KC II and Austin II drew 1-1 in MLS Next Pro on April 2, 2023.

The match was played at Rock Chalk Park in Lawrence, Kansas.