Sporting Kansas City vs St. Louis City — Major League Soccer 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 19+ matches
Sporting Kansas City38%
St. Louis City38%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 27 home / 19 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over60
- Under40
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes62
- No38
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Sporting Kansas City ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Sporting Kansas City at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.81 · 27 matches
St. Louis City away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.67 · 19 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Sporting Kansas City attack 1.42 + St. Louis City defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.54
St. Louis City attack 1.30 + Sporting Kansas City defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.56
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 38%?"
Sporting Kansas City at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 38% does not mean "Sporting Kansas City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Vancouver Whitecaps
San Jose Earthquakes
Real Salt Lake
FC Dallas
Los Angeles FC
Seattle Sounders
Houston Dynamo
Minnesota United FC
Los Angeles GalaxySt. Louis City
Portland Timbers
San Diego
Colorado Rapids
AustinSporting Kansas City
Nashville SC
Inter Miami
Chicago Fire
New England Revolution
New York Red Bulls
Charlotte
FC Cincinnati
New York City FC
DC United
Columbus Crew
CF Montreal
Toronto FC
Orlando City SC
Atlanta United FC
Philadelphia UnionIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Sporting Kansas City host St. Louis City on Sunday, 5 November 2023 at 22:00. The match is part of the Major League Soccer 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Sporting Kansas City vs St. Louis City
Sporting Kansas City beat St. Louis City 2-1 in Major League Soccer on November 5, 2023.
The match was played at Children's Mercy Park in Kansas City, Kansas.