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Sporting Kansas City vs San Jose Earthquakes — Major League Soccer 2026

Sporting Kansas City
Sporting Kansas City
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
San Jose Earthquakes
San Jose Earthquakes
3/17/2024Major League SoccerMajor League Soccer · Round 6Children's Mercy Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Sporting Kansas City36%
×Draw24%
San Jose Earthquakes40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting Kansas City
1.53
San Jose Earthquakes
1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 19 away

creates per match

Sporting Kansas City
1.42
San Jose Earthquakes
1.42

allows per match

Sporting Kansas City
1.81
San Jose Earthquakes
1.65

finishing

Sporting Kansas City-0.01on par
San Jose Earthquakes+0.53scores more

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Kansas City ↓

San Jose Earthquakes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Sporting Kansas City or draw
60%
Sporting Kansas City or San Jose Earthquakes
76%
Draw or San Jose Earthquakes
64%

Winning margin

Sporting Kansas City wins by 2+
17%
San Jose Earthquakes wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Sporting Kansas City 1+ goals
78%
Sporting Kansas City 2+ goals
45%
Sporting Kansas City 3+ goals
20%
San Jose Earthquakes 1+ goals
80%
San Jose Earthquakes 2+ goals
48%
San Jose Earthquakes 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Sporting Kansas City (draw refunded)
48%
San Jose Earthquakes (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Kansas City at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.81 · 27 matches

San Jose Earthquakes away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.65 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Kansas City attack 1.42 + San Jose Earthquakes defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.53

San Jose Earthquakes attack 1.42 + Sporting Kansas City defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sporting Kansas City scores more
36%
level
24%
San Jose Earthquakes scores more
40%

San Jose Earthquakes at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "San Jose Earthquakes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Major League Soccer: Sporting Kansas City 2–1 San Jose Earthquakes

Sporting Kansas City beat San Jose Earthquakes 2-1 in Major League Soccer on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Children's Mercy Park in Kansas City, Kansas.