Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sporting JAX vs Indy Eleven — USL Championship 2026

Sporting JAX
Sporting JAX
Preview
23:00
Indy Eleven
Indy Eleven
8/15/2026USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Group StageHodges Stadium
49%
Indy Eleven
model favours
30%21%49%

65% of Indy Eleven’s goals come after the 75th minute

brightest fact of this match

1–2
likely score
74%
over 2.5 goals
72%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Sporting JAX30%
×Draw21%
Indy Eleven49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting JAX
1.67
Indy Eleven
2.18

Indy Eleven creates 31% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 129 away

creates per match

Sporting JAX
1.75
Indy Eleven
1.11

allows per match

Sporting JAX
3.25
Indy Eleven
1.58

finishing

Sporting JAX+0.00on par
Indy Eleven+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting JAX ↓

Indy Eleven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Sporting JAX or draw
51%
Sporting JAX or Indy Eleven
79%
Draw or Indy Eleven
70%

Winning margin

Sporting JAX wins by 2+
14%
Indy Eleven wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Sporting JAX 1+ goals
81%
Sporting JAX 2+ goals
50%
Sporting JAX 3+ goals
23%
Indy Eleven 1+ goals
89%
Indy Eleven 2+ goals
64%
Indy Eleven 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Sporting JAX (draw refunded)
38%
Indy Eleven (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting JAX at home — creates 1.75, concedes 3.25 · 8 matches

Indy Eleven away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.58 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting JAX attack 1.75 + Indy Eleven defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.67

Indy Eleven attack 1.11 + Sporting JAX defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sporting JAX scores more
30%
level
21%
Indy Eleven scores more
49%

Indy Eleven at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Indy Eleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 83% of Sporting JAX’s matches
  • Indy Eleven score first in only 28% of matches
  • 75% of Sporting JAX’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Sporting JAX score first in only 33% of matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
JAX
WLDLL
Eleven
LWDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sporting JAX vs Indy Eleven — Match Preview

Sporting JAX face Indy Eleven on August 15, 2026 in this USL Championship fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Sporting JAX host Indy Eleven at Hodges Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.