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Sporting Huelva W vs Valencia W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Sporting Huelva W
Sporting Huelva W
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Valencia W
Valencia W
11/3/2019Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 8Estadio Municipal Manuel Macario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Sporting Huelva W43%
×Draw26%
Valencia W31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting Huelva W
1.45
Valencia W
1.17

Sporting Huelva W creates 24% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 105 away

creates per match

Sporting Huelva W
0.99
Valencia W
0.94

allows per match

Sporting Huelva W
1.40
Valencia W
1.91

finishing

Sporting Huelva W+0.00on par
Valencia W+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Huelva W ↓

Valencia W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Sporting Huelva W or draw
69%
Sporting Huelva W or Valencia W
74%
Draw or Valencia W
57%

Winning margin

Sporting Huelva W wins by 2+
21%
Valencia W wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sporting Huelva W 1+ goals
77%
Sporting Huelva W 2+ goals
42%
Sporting Huelva W 3+ goals
18%
Valencia W 1+ goals
69%
Valencia W 2+ goals
33%
Valencia W 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sporting Huelva W (draw refunded)
59%
Valencia W (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Huelva W at home — creates 0.99, concedes 1.40 · 92 matches

Valencia W away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.91 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Huelva W attack 0.99 + Valencia W defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.45

Valencia W attack 0.94 + Sporting Huelva W defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sporting Huelva W scores more
43%
level
26%
Valencia W scores more
31%

Sporting Huelva W at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sporting Huelva W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División Femenina: Sporting Huelva W 2–1 Valencia W

Sporting Huelva W beat Valencia W 2-1 in Primera División Femenina on November 3, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Manuel Macario in Rociana del Condado.