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Sporting Huelva W vs Rayo Vallecano W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Sporting Huelva W
Sporting Huelva W
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Rayo Vallecano W
Rayo Vallecano W
2/24/2019Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 22Campo Federativo de la Orden (Huelva)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Sporting Huelva W47%
×Draw25%
Rayo Vallecano W27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting Huelva W
1.54
Rayo Vallecano W
1.10

Sporting Huelva W creates 40% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 58 away

creates per match

Sporting Huelva W
0.99
Rayo Vallecano W
0.81

allows per match

Sporting Huelva W
1.40
Rayo Vallecano W
2.10

finishing

Sporting Huelva W+0.00on par
Rayo Vallecano W+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Huelva W ↓

Rayo Vallecano W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Sporting Huelva W or draw
73%
Sporting Huelva W or Rayo Vallecano W
75%
Draw or Rayo Vallecano W
53%

Winning margin

Sporting Huelva W wins by 2+
24%
Rayo Vallecano W wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sporting Huelva W 1+ goals
79%
Sporting Huelva W 2+ goals
45%
Sporting Huelva W 3+ goals
20%
Rayo Vallecano W 1+ goals
67%
Rayo Vallecano W 2+ goals
30%
Rayo Vallecano W 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sporting Huelva W (draw refunded)
64%
Rayo Vallecano W (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Huelva W at home — creates 0.99, concedes 1.40 · 92 matches

Rayo Vallecano W away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.10 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Huelva W attack 0.99 + Rayo Vallecano W defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.54

Rayo Vallecano W attack 0.81 + Sporting Huelva W defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sporting Huelva W scores more
47%
level
25%
Rayo Vallecano W scores more
27%

Sporting Huelva W at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sporting Huelva W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División Femenina: Sporting Huelva W 0–1 Rayo Vallecano W

Rayo Vallecano W beat Sporting Huelva W 1-0 in Primera División Femenina on February 24, 2019.

The match was played at Campo Federativo de la Orden (Huelva).