Sporting Huelva W vs Granad. Tenerife W — Primera División Femenina 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 92+ matches
Sporting Huelva W37%
Granad. Tenerife W37%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 92 home / 117 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under52
- Over48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes53
- No47
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Sporting Huelva W ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Sporting Huelva W at home — creates 0.99, concedes 1.40 · 92 matches
Granad. Tenerife W away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.58 · 117 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Sporting Huelva W attack 0.99 + Granad. Tenerife W defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.29
Granad. Tenerife W attack 1.21 + Sporting Huelva W defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.30
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 37%?"
Sporting Huelva W at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 37% does not mean "Sporting Huelva W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Barcelona W
Real Madrid W
Real Sociedad WGranad. Tenerife W
Atletico Madrid W
Granada
Athletic Club W
Sevilla W
FC Levante Badalona W
Madrid CFF W
Espanyol W
Deportivo de La Coruña W
Eibar W
Edf Logrono W
Alhama W
Levante WIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Sporting Huelva W host Granad. Tenerife W on Saturday, 16 May 2020 at 22:00. The match is part of the Primera División Femenina 2018/2019 season.
Sporting Huelva W face Granad. Tenerife W (Primera División Femenina)
Primera División Femenina returns with Sporting Huelva W hosting Granad. Tenerife W. Match starts May 16, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.
Sporting Huelva W host Granad. Tenerife W at Estadio Nuevo Colombino.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.