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Sporting Huelva W vs Barcelona W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Sporting Huelva W
Sporting Huelva W
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 3
Barcelona W
Barcelona W
10/18/2020Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 3Campo Federativo de la Orden

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Sporting Huelva W8%
×Draw15%
Barcelona W78%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting Huelva W
0.67
Barcelona W
2.55

Barcelona W creates 281% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 119 away

creates per match

Sporting Huelva W
0.99
Barcelona W
3.70

allows per match

Sporting Huelva W
1.40
Barcelona W
0.34

finishing

Sporting Huelva W+0.00on par
Barcelona W+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Huelva W ↓

Barcelona W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–110%
0–213%
0–311%
0–47%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–23%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (13%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Sporting Huelva W or draw
22%
Sporting Huelva W or Barcelona W
85%
Draw or Barcelona W
92%

Winning margin

Sporting Huelva W wins by 2+
2%
Barcelona W wins by 2+
56%

Team goals

Sporting Huelva W 1+ goals
49%
Sporting Huelva W 2+ goals
15%
Sporting Huelva W 3+ goals
3%
Barcelona W 1+ goals
92%
Barcelona W 2+ goals
72%
Barcelona W 3+ goals
46%

Draw no bet

Sporting Huelva W (draw refunded)
9%
Barcelona W (draw refunded)
91%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Huelva W at home — creates 0.99, concedes 1.40 · 92 matches

Barcelona W away — creates 3.70, concedes 0.34 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Huelva W attack 0.99 + Barcelona W defence 0.34 → ÷2 → 0.67

Barcelona W attack 3.70 + Sporting Huelva W defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 2.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Sporting Huelva W scores more
8%
level
15%
Barcelona W scores more
78%

Barcelona W at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Barcelona W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sporting Huelva W vs Barcelona W

Barcelona W beat Sporting Huelva W 6-0 in Primera División Femenina on October 18, 2020.

The match was played at Campo Federativo de la Orden in Huelva.