Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sporting Gijón II vs Luarca — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Sporting Gijón II
Sporting Gijón II
FT
5 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Luarca
Luarca
10/31/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 11Escuela de Fútbol de Mareo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Sporting Gijón II71%
×Draw19%
Luarca10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting Gijón II
2.08
Luarca
0.65

Sporting Gijón II creates 220% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 51 away

creates per match

Sporting Gijón II
2.42
Luarca
0.75

allows per match

Sporting Gijón II
0.54
Luarca
1.73

finishing

Sporting Gijón II+0.00on par
Luarca+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Gijón II ↓

Luarca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Sporting Gijón II or draw
90%
Sporting Gijón II or Luarca
81%
Draw or Luarca
29%

Winning margin

Sporting Gijón II wins by 2+
45%
Luarca wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Sporting Gijón II 1+ goals
87%
Sporting Gijón II 2+ goals
61%
Sporting Gijón II 3+ goals
34%
Luarca 1+ goals
48%
Luarca 2+ goals
14%
Luarca 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Sporting Gijón II (draw refunded)
87%
Luarca (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Gijón II at home — creates 2.42, concedes 0.54 · 85 matches

Luarca away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.73 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Gijón II attack 2.42 + Luarca defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 2.08

Luarca attack 0.75 + Sporting Gijón II defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Sporting Gijón II scores more
71%
level
19%
Luarca scores more
10%

Sporting Gijón II at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Sporting Gijón II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sporting Gijón II 5 – 0 Luarca

Sporting Gijón II beat Luarca 5-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on October 31, 2021.

The match was played at Escuela de Fútbol de Mareo in Gijón.