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Sporting Gijón II vs Covadonga — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Sporting Gijón II
Sporting Gijón II
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Covadonga
Covadonga
2/21/2021Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 15Escuela de Fútbol de Mareo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Sporting Gijón II59%
×Draw21%
Covadonga20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting Gijón II
2.08
Covadonga
1.13

Sporting Gijón II creates 84% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 13 away

creates per match

Sporting Gijón II
1.63
Covadonga
1.15

allows per match

Sporting Gijón II
1.11
Covadonga
2.54

finishing

Sporting Gijón II+0.00on par
Covadonga+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Gijón II ↓

Covadonga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Sporting Gijón II or draw
80%
Sporting Gijón II or Covadonga
79%
Draw or Covadonga
41%

Winning margin

Sporting Gijón II wins by 2+
36%
Covadonga wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sporting Gijón II 1+ goals
87%
Sporting Gijón II 2+ goals
61%
Sporting Gijón II 3+ goals
34%
Covadonga 1+ goals
68%
Covadonga 2+ goals
31%
Covadonga 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sporting Gijón II (draw refunded)
75%
Covadonga (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Gijón II at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.11 · 27 matches

Covadonga away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Gijón II attack 1.63 + Covadonga defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.08

Covadonga attack 1.15 + Sporting Gijón II defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Sporting Gijón II scores more
59%
level
21%
Covadonga scores more
20%

Sporting Gijón II at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Sporting Gijón II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sporting Gijón II vs Covadonga

Sporting Gijón II and Covadonga drew 3-3 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on February 21, 2021.

The match was played at Escuela de Fútbol de Mareo in Gijón.