Sporting Cristal 3–1 Deportivo Municipal

Sporting Cristal

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Deportivo Municipal

4/13/2021

Primera División · Apertura - 4Estadio Alejandro Villanueva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Sporting Cristal59%

×Draw21%

Deportivo Municipal19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting CristalExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Municipal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.99

1.03

Sporting Cristal

1.99

Deportivo Municipal

1.03

Sporting Cristal creates 93% more chances

Season form · 152 home / 102 away

2.25

creates per match

1.25

0.82

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Sporting Cristal

2.25

Deportivo Municipal

1.25

allows per match

Sporting Cristal

0.82

Deportivo Municipal

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting Cristal+0.00on par

Deportivo Municipal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Cristal ↓

Deportivo Municipal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Sporting Cristal or draw

81%

Sporting Cristal or Deportivo Municipal

79%

Draw or Deportivo Municipal

41%

Winning margin

Sporting Cristal wins by 2+

36%

Deportivo Municipal wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Sporting Cristal 1+ goals

86%

Sporting Cristal 2+ goals

59%

Sporting Cristal 3+ goals

32%

Deportivo Municipal 1+ goals

64%

Deportivo Municipal 2+ goals

28%

Deportivo Municipal 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Sporting Cristal (draw refunded)

76%

Deportivo Municipal (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Cristal at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.82 · 152 matches

Deportivo Municipal away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.73 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Cristal attack 2.25 + Deportivo Municipal defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.99

Deportivo Municipal attack 1.25 + Sporting Cristal defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Sporting Cristal scores more

59%

level

21%

Deportivo Municipal scores more

19%

Sporting Cristal at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Sporting Cristal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff