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Sporting CP vs Rio Ave — Taça de Portugal 2018

Sporting CP
Sporting CP
FT
5 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
Rio Ave
Rio Ave
Abdoulay Diaby 77', 4'
B. Dost 61', 32'
Bruno Fernandes 42'
Carlos 83' (pen)
Bruno Gaspar 45+1' (OG)
12/19/2018Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 8th FinalsEstádio José Alvalade (Lisboa)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Sporting CP62%
×Draw19%
Rio Ave19%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting CP
2.45
Rio Ave
1.29

Sporting CP creates 90% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 11 away

creates per match

Sporting CP
3.17
Rio Ave
2.09

allows per match

Sporting CP
0.50
Rio Ave
1.73

finishing

Sporting CP+0.00on par
Rio Ave+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting CP ↓

Rio Ave →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Sporting CP or draw
81%
Sporting CP or Rio Ave
81%
Draw or Rio Ave
38%

Winning margin

Sporting CP wins by 2+
41%
Rio Ave wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sporting CP 1+ goals
91%
Sporting CP 2+ goals
70%
Sporting CP 3+ goals
44%
Rio Ave 1+ goals
72%
Rio Ave 2+ goals
37%
Rio Ave 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sporting CP (draw refunded)
77%
Rio Ave (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting CP at home — creates 3.17, concedes 0.50 · 12 matches

Rio Ave away — creates 2.09, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting CP attack 3.17 + Rio Ave defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 2.45

Rio Ave attack 2.09 + Sporting CP defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Sporting CP scores more
62%
level
19%
Rio Ave scores more
19%

Sporting CP at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Sporting CP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
Abdoulay Diaby
32'
B. Dost
42'
Bruno Fernandes
45+1'
Bruno GasparOwn goal
61'
B. Dost
77'
Abdoulay Diaby
83'
CarlosPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sporting CP vs Rio Ave

Sporting CP beat Rio Ave 5-2 in Taça de Portugal on December 19, 2018.

Goals: Abdoulay Diaby (4', 77'), B. Dost (32', 61'), Bruno Fernandes (42'), Bruno Gaspar (45+1' o.g.), Carlos (83' pen).

The match was played at Estádio José Alvalade (Lisboa).