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Sporting CP vs Monaco — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Sporting CP
Sporting CP
Preview
18:30
Monaco
Monaco
7/25/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies
64%
Sporting CP
model favours
64%19%17%

Sporting CP are unbeaten in 8 straight

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
67%
over 2.5 goals
61%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sporting CP64%
×Draw19%
Monaco17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting CP
2.33
Monaco
1.13

Sporting CP creates 106% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Sporting CP
3.50
Monaco
1.50

allows per match

Sporting CP
0.75
Monaco
1.17

finishing

Sporting CP+0.00on par
Monaco+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting CP ↓

Monaco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Sporting CP or draw
83%
Sporting CP or Monaco
81%
Draw or Monaco
36%

Winning margin

Sporting CP wins by 2+
41%
Monaco wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sporting CP 1+ goals
90%
Sporting CP 2+ goals
67%
Sporting CP 3+ goals
41%
Monaco 1+ goals
68%
Monaco 2+ goals
31%
Monaco 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sporting CP (draw refunded)
79%
Monaco (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting CP at home — creates 3.50, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Monaco away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting CP attack 3.50 + Monaco defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 2.33

Monaco attack 1.50 + Sporting CP defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Sporting CP scores more
64%
level
19%
Monaco scores more
17%

Sporting CP at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Sporting CP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Sporting CP have scored in 9 games running
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (72% and 66% over 2.5)
  • 72% of Sporting CP’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • When Sporting CP score first, they win 80% of the time
  • Both teams score in 70% of Monaco’s matches
  • 66% of Monaco’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
CP
WWDWW
Monaco
WLLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Sporting CP host Monaco

July 25, 2026: Sporting CP take on Monaco in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.