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Sporting CP vs GIL Vicente — Primeira Liga 2018

Sporting CP
Sporting CP
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
GIL Vicente
GIL Vicente
12/4/2023Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 12Estádio José Alvalade

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Sporting CP54%
×Draw24%
GIL Vicente22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting CP
1.72
GIL Vicente
1.01

Sporting CP creates 70% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 16 away

creates per match

Sporting CP
2.26
GIL Vicente
1.28

allows per match

Sporting CP
0.74
GIL Vicente
1.19

finishing

Sporting CP+0.74scores more
GIL Vicente-0.15scores less

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting CP ↓

GIL Vicente →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Sporting CP or draw
78%
Sporting CP or GIL Vicente
76%
Draw or GIL Vicente
46%

Winning margin

Sporting CP wins by 2+
30%
GIL Vicente wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sporting CP 1+ goals
82%
Sporting CP 2+ goals
51%
Sporting CP 3+ goals
25%
GIL Vicente 1+ goals
64%
GIL Vicente 2+ goals
27%
GIL Vicente 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sporting CP (draw refunded)
71%
GIL Vicente (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting CP at home — creates 2.26, concedes 0.74 · 17 matches

GIL Vicente away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.19 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting CP attack 2.26 + GIL Vicente defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.72

GIL Vicente attack 1.28 + Sporting CP defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Sporting CP scores more
54%
level
24%
GIL Vicente scores more
22%

Sporting CP at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Sporting CP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Liga: Sporting CP 3–1 GIL Vicente

Sporting CP beat GIL Vicente 3-1 in Primeira Liga on December 4, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio José Alvalade in Lisboa.