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Sporting CP vs FC Porto — Primeira Liga 2018

Sporting CP
Sporting CP
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
FC Porto
FC Porto
12/18/2023Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 14Estádio José Alvalade

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Sporting CP44%
×Draw25%
FC Porto31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting CP
1.51
FC Porto
1.23

Sporting CP creates 23% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 18 away

creates per match

Sporting CP
2.26
FC Porto
1.71

allows per match

Sporting CP
0.74
FC Porto
0.77

finishing

Sporting CP+0.74scores more
FC Porto-0.15scores less

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting CP ↓

FC Porto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Sporting CP or draw
69%
Sporting CP or FC Porto
75%
Draw or FC Porto
56%

Winning margin

Sporting CP wins by 2+
22%
FC Porto wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sporting CP 1+ goals
78%
Sporting CP 2+ goals
44%
Sporting CP 3+ goals
19%
FC Porto 1+ goals
71%
FC Porto 2+ goals
35%
FC Porto 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Sporting CP (draw refunded)
59%
FC Porto (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting CP at home — creates 2.26, concedes 0.74 · 17 matches

FC Porto away — creates 1.71, concedes 0.77 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting CP attack 2.26 + FC Porto defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.51

FC Porto attack 1.71 + Sporting CP defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sporting CP scores more
44%
level
25%
FC Porto scores more
31%

Sporting CP at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sporting CP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sporting CP vs FC Porto

Sporting CP beat FC Porto 2-0 in Primeira Liga on December 18, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio José Alvalade in Lisboa.