Sporting CP 1–2 FC Porto: Result & Stats

Sporting CP

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

FC Porto

Pablo Sarabia 49'

Evanilson 64'

M. Taremi 59' (pen)

3/2/2022

Taça de Portugal · Semi-finalsEstádio José Alvalade

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Sporting CP45%

×Draw23%

FC Porto33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting CPExpected goals in this matchFC Porto

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.52

Sporting CP

1.81

FC Porto

1.52

Sporting CP creates 19% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 24 away

3.17

creates per match

2.54

0.50

allows per match

0.46

creates per match

Sporting CP

3.17

FC Porto

2.54

allows per match

Sporting CP

0.50

FC Porto

0.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting CP+0.00on par

FC Porto+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting CP ↓

FC Porto →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

65%35%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Sporting CP or draw

67%

Sporting CP or FC Porto

77%

Draw or FC Porto

55%

Winning margin

Sporting CP wins by 2+

24%

FC Porto wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Sporting CP 1+ goals

84%

Sporting CP 2+ goals

54%

Sporting CP 3+ goals

27%

FC Porto 1+ goals

78%

FC Porto 2+ goals

45%

FC Porto 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Sporting CP (draw refunded)

58%

FC Porto (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting CP at home — creates 3.17, concedes 0.50 · 12 matches

FC Porto away — creates 2.54, concedes 0.46 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting CP attack 3.17 + FC Porto defence 0.46 → ÷2 → 1.81

FC Porto attack 2.54 + Sporting CP defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sporting CP scores more

45%

level

23%

FC Porto scores more

33%

Sporting CP at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sporting CP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

M. Taremi

FC Porto · F

7.9

Match Events

33'

Paulinho

46'

M. Edwards← Nuno Santos

49'

Pablo Sarabia↳ Pedro Porro

56'

Antonio Adán

57'

Sebastián Coates

59'

M. TaremiPenalty

61'

João Mário← Bruno Costa

61'

Pepê Aquino← M. Grujić

61'

Otávio← Fábio Vieira

64'

Evanilson↳ M. Taremi

71'

I. Slimani← Luís Carlos

78'

Agustín Marchesín

80'

Vitinha

81'

Daniel Bragança← M. Ugarte

84'

Toni Martínez← Evanilson

88'

Fábio Cardoso← Vitinha

90+8'

90+3'

90+1'

90+3'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportingFC

Overview

48%Possession52%

5Total Shots8

2Corners4

17Fouls15

Shots

5Total Shots8

3On Target3

2Off Target4

0Blocked1

2Inside Box6

3Outside Box2

Passing

48%Possession52%

390Total Passes439

322Accurate Passes365

83%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

17Fouls15

6Yellow Cards3

2Offsides4