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Sporting CP vs Boavista — Primeira Liga 2018

Sporting CP
Sporting CP
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Boavista
Boavista
2/23/2020Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 22Estádio José Alvalade

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Sporting CP64%
×Draw21%
Boavista15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting CP
2.02
Boavista
0.85

Sporting CP creates 138% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 119 away

creates per match

Sporting CP
2.36
Boavista
1.03

allows per match

Sporting CP
0.67
Boavista
1.68

finishing

Sporting CP+0.00on par
Boavista+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting CP ↓

Boavista →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Sporting CP or draw
85%
Sporting CP or Boavista
79%
Draw or Boavista
36%

Winning margin

Sporting CP wins by 2+
40%
Boavista wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Sporting CP 1+ goals
87%
Sporting CP 2+ goals
60%
Sporting CP 3+ goals
33%
Boavista 1+ goals
57%
Boavista 2+ goals
21%
Boavista 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sporting CP (draw refunded)
81%
Boavista (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting CP at home — creates 2.36, concedes 0.67 · 136 matches

Boavista away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.68 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting CP attack 2.36 + Boavista defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 2.02

Boavista attack 1.03 + Sporting CP defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Sporting CP scores more
64%
level
21%
Boavista scores more
15%

Sporting CP at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Sporting CP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Liga: Sporting CP 2–0 Boavista

Sporting CP beat Boavista 2-0 in Primeira Liga on February 23, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio José Alvalade in Lisboa.