Sporting CP 3–0 Boavista: Result & Stats

Sporting CP

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Boavista

Nani 66', 31'

Bruno Fernandes 64'

10/28/2018

Primeira Liga · Round 8Estádio José Alvalade

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Sporting CP64%

×Draw21%

Boavista15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting CPExpected goals in this matchBoavista

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

0.85

Sporting CP

2.02

Boavista

0.85

Sporting CP creates 138% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 119 away

2.36

creates per match

1.03

0.67

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Sporting CP

2.36

Boavista

1.03

allows per match

Sporting CP

0.67

Boavista

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting CP+0.00on par

Boavista+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting CP ↓

Boavista →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Sporting CP or draw

85%

Sporting CP or Boavista

79%

Draw or Boavista

36%

Winning margin

Sporting CP wins by 2+

40%

Boavista wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Sporting CP 1+ goals

87%

Sporting CP 2+ goals

60%

Sporting CP 3+ goals

33%

Boavista 1+ goals

57%

Boavista 2+ goals

21%

Boavista 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Sporting CP (draw refunded)

81%

Boavista (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting CP at home — creates 2.36, concedes 0.67 · 136 matches

Boavista away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.68 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting CP attack 2.36 + Boavista defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 2.02

Boavista attack 1.03 + Sporting CP defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Sporting CP scores more

64%

level

21%

Boavista scores more

15%

Sporting CP at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Sporting CP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

Nani

Sporting CP · M

9.6

Match Events

31'

Nani↳ F. Montero

44'

Rafael Costa← I. Mandiang

47'

Marcos Acuña

55'

Rochinha

60'

Matheus Índio← Mateus

64'

Bruno Fernandes↳ Abdoulay Diaby

65'

65'

66'

69'

75'

André Claro← Fábio Espinho

78'

B. Dost← M. Acuña

79'

André Pinto← F. Montero

87'

Bruno César← Abdoulay Diaby

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportingBoavista

Overview

62%Possession38%

24Total Shots10

9Corners4

12Fouls14

Shots

24Total Shots10

10On Target0

10Off Target8

4Blocked2

18Inside Box4

6Outside Box6

Passing

62%Possession38%

423Total Passes260

347Accurate Passes177

82%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

0Saves6

Discipline

12Fouls14

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

2Offsides2