Sporting CP 2–1 Benfica: Result & Stats

Sporting CP

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Benfica

2/29/2024

Taça de Portugal · Semi-finalsEstádio José Alvalade

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Sporting CP53%

×Draw22%

Benfica24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting CPExpected goals in this matchBenfica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.21

Sporting CP

1.90

Benfica

1.21

Sporting CP creates 57% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 24 away

3.17

creates per match

1.92

0.50

allows per match

0.63

creates per match

Sporting CP

3.17

Benfica

1.92

allows per match

Sporting CP

0.50

Benfica

0.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting CP+0.00on par

Benfica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting CP ↓

Benfica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Sporting CP or draw

76%

Sporting CP or Benfica

78%

Draw or Benfica

47%

Winning margin

Sporting CP wins by 2+

31%

Benfica wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sporting CP 1+ goals

85%

Sporting CP 2+ goals

56%

Sporting CP 3+ goals

29%

Benfica 1+ goals

70%

Benfica 2+ goals

34%

Benfica 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Sporting CP (draw refunded)

69%

Benfica (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting CP at home — creates 3.17, concedes 0.50 · 12 matches

Benfica away — creates 1.92, concedes 0.63 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting CP attack 3.17 + Benfica defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 1.90

Benfica attack 1.92 + Sporting CP defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Sporting CP scores more

53%

level

22%

Benfica scores more

24%

Sporting CP at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Sporting CP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff