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Sporting CP B vs AVS — Segunda Liga 2018

Sporting CP B
Sporting CP B
Preview
16:00
AVS
AVS
1/17/2027Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 18CGD Stadium Aurelio Pereira
45%
AVS
model favours
30%25%45%

AVS score first in only 10% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
over 2.5 goals
56%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sporting CP B30%
×Draw25%
AVS45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting CP B
1.23
AVS
1.58

AVS creates 28% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 17 away

creates per match

Sporting CP B
1.41
AVS
1.76

allows per match

Sporting CP B
1.41
AVS
1.06

finishing

Sporting CP B+0.00on par
AVS+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 53Under: 4753%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 56No: 4456%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting CP B ↓

AVS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Sporting CP B or draw
55%
Sporting CP B or AVS
75%
Draw or AVS
70%

Winning margin

Sporting CP B wins by 2+
12%
AVS wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Sporting CP B 1+ goals
71%
Sporting CP B 2+ goals
35%
Sporting CP B 3+ goals
13%
AVS 1+ goals
79%
AVS 2+ goals
47%
AVS 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Sporting CP B (draw refunded)
40%
AVS (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting CP B at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.41 · 29 matches

AVS away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting CP B attack 1.41 + AVS defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.23

AVS attack 1.76 + Sporting CP B defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sporting CP B scores more
30%
level
25%
AVS scores more
45%

AVS at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "AVS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • AVS win just 10% of their away games
  • Sporting CP B and AVS have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
B
DLLLL
AVS
LDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Sporting CP B host AVS

January 17, 2027: Sporting CP B take on AVS in Segunda Liga. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Sporting CP B host AVS at CGD Stadium Aurelio Pereira.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.