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Sporting CP B vs Academica — Segunda Liga 2018

Sporting CP B
Sporting CP B
Preview
16:00
Academica
Academica
12/13/2026Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 14CGD Stadium Aurelio Pereira
Big match
39%
Sporting CP B
model favours
39%27%35%
1–1
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Sporting CP B39%
×Draw27%
Academica35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting CP B
1.31
Academica
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 64 away

creates per match

Sporting CP B
1.41
Academica
1.06

allows per match

Sporting CP B
1.41
Academica
1.22

finishing

Sporting CP B+0.00on par
Academica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 53Over: 4753%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 52No: 4852%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting CP B ↓

Academica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Sporting CP B or draw
65%
Sporting CP B or Academica
73%
Draw or Academica
61%

Winning margin

Sporting CP B wins by 2+
17%
Academica wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Sporting CP B 1+ goals
73%
Sporting CP B 2+ goals
38%
Sporting CP B 3+ goals
14%
Academica 1+ goals
71%
Academica 2+ goals
35%
Academica 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Sporting CP B (draw refunded)
53%
Academica (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting CP B at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.41 · 29 matches

Academica away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.22 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting CP B attack 1.41 + Academica defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.31

Academica attack 1.06 + Sporting CP B defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sporting CP B scores more
39%
level
27%
Academica scores more
35%

Sporting CP B at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sporting CP B will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Sporting CP B
Balanced
Academica
Balanced
55%Possession50%
82%Pass accuracy—
10.2ShotsBiggest gap8.0
—xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Sporting CP BAcademica

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

2
Sporting CP B
2
Draws
2
Academica
Avg goals: 1.8BTTS: 50%
0–02–10–01–21–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
B
DLLLL
Academica
LLLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sporting CP B face Academica (Segunda Liga)

Segunda Liga returns with Sporting CP B hosting Academica. Match starts December 13, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Sporting CP B host Academica at CGD Stadium Aurelio Pereira.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.