Sport Recife 1–1 Retrô: Result & Stats

Sport Recife

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Retrô

Marcelo Ajul 69'

Walce 53'

1/18/2025

League #622 · 1st Phase - 3Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Sport Recife35%

×Draw23%

Retrô41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sport RecifeExpected goals in this matchRetrô

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.68

Sport Recife

1.54

Retrô

1.68

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 12 away

1.82

creates per match

2.00

1.36

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Sport Recife

1.82

Retrô

2.00

allows per match

Sport Recife

1.36

Retrô

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sport Recife+0.00on par

Retrô+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Recife ↓

Retrô →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Sport Recife or draw

59%

Sport Recife or Retrô

77%

Draw or Retrô

65%

Winning margin

Sport Recife wins by 2+

17%

Retrô wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Sport Recife 1+ goals

79%

Sport Recife 2+ goals

45%

Sport Recife 3+ goals

20%

Retrô 1+ goals

81%

Retrô 2+ goals

50%

Retrô 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Sport Recife (draw refunded)

46%

Retrô (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Recife at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

Retrô away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Recife attack 1.82 + Retrô defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.54

Retrô attack 2.00 + Sport Recife defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sport Recife scores more

35%

level

23%

Retrô scores more

41%

Retrô at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Retrô will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

Marcelo Ajul

Sport Recife · D

8.2

Match Events

22'

Fabinho

45+2'

José Lucas Gomes da Silva

46'

Gledson← Jonas

46'

Jonathan Silva← Denílson

46'

Samuel Granada← Franklin Mascote

53'

Walce

54'

Radsley

57'

Kayan← Micael

57'

Marco Polo← Gago

59'

Rômulo← Fabinho

61'

Rafael Lima da Silva

69'

Marcelo Ajul

73'

Felipinho← Jefinho

74'

Lucas Grafite← Felipe Augusto

81'

Breno← Adriel

81'

Enzo Vágner← Dieguinho

86'

Orlando Neto

90+1'

Grafite

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportRetrô

Overview

43%Possession57%

5Total Shots10

0.46Expected Goals (xG)0.27

3Corners9

14Fouls12

Shots

5Total Shots10

4On Target1

0Off Target4

1Blocked5

2Inside Box2

3Outside Box8

Passing

43%Possession57%

318Total Passes448

262Accurate Passes378

82%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls12

3Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

2Offsides3