Sport Recife 2–2 Nautico Recife: Result & Stats

Sport Recife

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Nautico Recife

3/21/2024

Copa do Nordeste · Group Stage - 6Itaipava Arena Pernambuco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Sport Recife54%

×Draw23%

Nautico Recife23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sport RecifeExpected goals in this matchNautico Recife

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.06

Sport Recife

1.77

Nautico Recife

1.06

Sport Recife creates 67% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 25 away

1.78

creates per match

1.20

0.92

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Sport Recife

1.78

Nautico Recife

1.20

allows per match

Sport Recife

0.92

Nautico Recife

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sport Recife+0.00on par

Nautico Recife+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Recife ↓

Nautico Recife →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Sport Recife or draw

77%

Sport Recife or Nautico Recife

77%

Draw or Nautico Recife

46%

Winning margin

Sport Recife wins by 2+

30%

Nautico Recife wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Sport Recife 1+ goals

83%

Sport Recife 2+ goals

53%

Sport Recife 3+ goals

26%

Nautico Recife 1+ goals

65%

Nautico Recife 2+ goals

29%

Nautico Recife 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Sport Recife (draw refunded)

70%

Nautico Recife (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Recife at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.92 · 36 matches

Nautico Recife away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.76 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Recife attack 1.78 + Nautico Recife defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.77

Nautico Recife attack 1.20 + Sport Recife defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Sport Recife scores more

54%

level

23%

Nautico Recife scores more

23%

Sport Recife at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Sport Recife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff