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Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC — Copa do Nordeste 2020

Sport Recife
Sport Recife
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Fortaleza EC
Fortaleza EC
2/22/2024Copa do NordesteCopa do Nordeste · Group Stage - 4Itaipava Arena Pernambuco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Sport Recife43%
×Draw26%
Fortaleza EC30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sport Recife
1.41
Fortaleza EC
1.13

Sport Recife creates 25% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 33 away

creates per match

Sport Recife
1.78
Fortaleza EC
1.33

allows per match

Sport Recife
0.92
Fortaleza EC
1.03

finishing

Sport Recife+0.00on par
Fortaleza EC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Recife ↓

Fortaleza EC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Sport Recife or draw
70%
Sport Recife or Fortaleza EC
74%
Draw or Fortaleza EC
57%

Winning margin

Sport Recife wins by 2+
21%
Fortaleza EC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sport Recife 1+ goals
76%
Sport Recife 2+ goals
41%
Sport Recife 3+ goals
17%
Fortaleza EC 1+ goals
68%
Fortaleza EC 2+ goals
31%
Fortaleza EC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sport Recife (draw refunded)
59%
Fortaleza EC (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Recife at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.92 · 36 matches

Fortaleza EC away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.03 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Recife attack 1.78 + Fortaleza EC defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.41

Fortaleza EC attack 1.33 + Sport Recife defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sport Recife scores more
43%
level
26%
Fortaleza EC scores more
30%

Sport Recife at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sport Recife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa do Nordeste: Sport Recife 1–1 Fortaleza EC

Sport Recife and Fortaleza EC drew 1-1 in Copa do Nordeste on February 22, 2024.

The match was played at Itaipava Arena Pernambuco in Recife, Pernambuco.