Sport Huancayo 1–1 FBC Melgar: Result & Stats

Sport Huancayo

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

FBC Melgar

Juan Pérez 37'

P. Magnín 52' (pen)

4/9/2023

Primera División · Apertura - 11Estadio Huancayo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Sport Huancayo44%

×Draw25%

FBC Melgar31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sport HuancayoExpected goals in this matchFBC Melgar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.29

Sport Huancayo

1.58

FBC Melgar

1.29

Sport Huancayo creates 22% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 19 away

1.54

creates per match

1.46

1.13

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Sport Huancayo

1.54

FBC Melgar

1.46

allows per match

Sport Huancayo

1.13

FBC Melgar

1.63

+0.38scores more than expected

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

Sport Huancayo+0.38scores more

FBC Melgar-0.09on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Huancayo ↓

FBC Melgar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Sport Huancayo or draw

69%

Sport Huancayo or FBC Melgar

75%

Draw or FBC Melgar

56%

Winning margin

Sport Huancayo wins by 2+

22%

FBC Melgar wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Sport Huancayo 1+ goals

79%

Sport Huancayo 2+ goals

47%

Sport Huancayo 3+ goals

21%

FBC Melgar 1+ goals

72%

FBC Melgar 2+ goals

37%

FBC Melgar 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Sport Huancayo (draw refunded)

59%

FBC Melgar (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Huancayo at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.13 · 13 matches

FBC Melgar away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Huancayo attack 1.54 + FBC Melgar defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.58

FBC Melgar attack 1.46 + Sport Huancayo defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sport Huancayo scores more

44%

level

25%

FBC Melgar scores more

31%

Sport Huancayo at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sport Huancayo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

M. Lliuya

Sport Huancayo · M

8.3

Match Events

-5'

Horacio Orzan

37'

Juan Pérez↳ M. Lliuya

46'

C. Bordacahar← K. Cabrera

46'

A. Arias← C. Cervantes

52'

P. MagnínPenalty

65'

Jhamir D´Arrigo

67'

Marcos Lliuya

69'

B. Cuesta← P. Magnín

70'

M. Barreda← J. D´Arrigo

73'

Jimmy Valoyes

76'

Carlos Cáceda

77'

Hugo Ángeles

79'

H. Orzán← J. Archimbaud

82'

D. Millán← L. Benítes

82'

C. Jiménez← C. Ross

82'

Alexis Rojas← Juan Pérez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportFBC

Overview

56%Possession44%

22Total Shots12

10Corners2

6Fouls7

Shots

22Total Shots12

3On Target5

13Off Target7

6Blocked0

11Inside Box3

11Outside Box9

Passing

56%Possession44%

469Total Passes379

399Accurate Passes313

85%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

6Fouls7

3Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2