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Spezia vs Empoli — Serie B 2018

Spezia
Spezia
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Empoli
Empoli
A. Ragusa 72'
6/19/2020Serie BSerie B · Round 29Stadio Alberto Picco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Spezia45%
×Draw25%
Empoli30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spezia
1.57
Empoli
1.22

Spezia creates 29% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 13 away

creates per match

Spezia
1.51
Empoli
1.27

allows per match

Spezia
1.17
Empoli
1.64

finishing

Spezia+0.27scores more
Empoli-0.12scores less

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spezia ↓

Empoli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Spezia or draw
70%
Spezia or Empoli
75%
Draw or Empoli
55%

Winning margin

Spezia wins by 2+
23%
Empoli wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Spezia 1+ goals
79%
Spezia 2+ goals
46%
Spezia 3+ goals
21%
Empoli 1+ goals
70%
Empoli 2+ goals
34%
Empoli 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Spezia (draw refunded)
60%
Empoli (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spezia at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.17 · 9 matches

Empoli away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.64 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spezia attack 1.51 + Empoli defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.57

Empoli attack 1.27 + Spezia defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Spezia scores more
45%
level
25%
Empoli scores more
30%

Spezia at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Spezia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
Simone ScuffetSpeziaSpezia · G
7.3

Match Events

43'
J. Balkovec
61'
A. Galabinov← M. NZola
67'
S. Moreo← L. Mancuso
67'
S. Żurkowski← L. Henderson
69'
A. Ragusa← G. Mastinu
69'
G. Acampora← G. Maggiore
72'
A. Ragusa↳ R. Marchizza
80'
G. Tutino← D. Frattesi
80'
S. Romagnoli← D. Maietta
85'
C. Terzi← L. Mora
86'
T. Reinhart← E. Gyasi
86'
F. Bandinelli← A. Ciciretti
90+1'
P. Bartolomei

Possession

53%Spezia

Shots

10Spezia

Pass accuracy

51%Spezia

Statistics

SpeziaEmpoli
Overview
53%Possession47%
10Total Shots10
2Corners9
12Fouls15
Shots
10Total Shots10
4On Target3
6Off Target6
0Blocked1
4Inside Box7
6Outside Box3
Passing
53%Possession47%
564Total Passes472
491Accurate Passes396
87%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
12Fouls15
1Yellow Cards1
1Offsides3

Match Recap: Spezia vs Empoli

Spezia beat Empoli 1-0 in Serie B on June 19, 2020.

Goals: A. Ragusa (72').

Spezia controlled possession (53%) and registered 10 shots to 10.

The match was played at Stadio Alberto Picco in La Spezia.