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Spezia U19 vs Pescara U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Spezia U19
Spezia U19
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Pescara U19
Pescara U19
12/9/2023Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 11Intels Training Center Ferdeghini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Spezia U1944%
×Draw22%
Pescara U1933%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spezia U19
1.84
Pescara U19
1.57

Spezia U19 creates 17% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 72 away

creates per match

Spezia U19
1.98
Pescara U19
1.75

allows per match

Spezia U19
1.40
Pescara U19
1.71

finishing

Spezia U19+0.00on par
Pescara U19+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spezia U19 ↓

Pescara U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Spezia U19 or draw
67%
Spezia U19 or Pescara U19
78%
Draw or Pescara U19
56%

Winning margin

Spezia U19 wins by 2+
24%
Pescara U19 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Spezia U19 1+ goals
84%
Spezia U19 2+ goals
55%
Spezia U19 3+ goals
28%
Pescara U19 1+ goals
79%
Pescara U19 2+ goals
46%
Pescara U19 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Spezia U19 (draw refunded)
57%
Pescara U19 (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spezia U19 at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.40 · 83 matches

Pescara U19 away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.71 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spezia U19 attack 1.98 + Pescara U19 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.84

Pescara U19 attack 1.75 + Spezia U19 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Spezia U19 scores more
44%
level
22%
Pescara U19 scores more
33%

Spezia U19 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Spezia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spezia U19 vs Pescara U19

Spezia U19 and Pescara U19 drew 3-3 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on December 9, 2023.

The match was played at Intels Training Center Ferdeghini in La Spezia.