Spezia U19 2–3 Crotone U19: Result & Stats

Spezia U19

FT

2 – 3

Crotone U19

1/20/2024

Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 15Intels Training Center Ferdeghini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Spezia U1957%

×Draw21%

Crotone U1922%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spezia U19Expected goals in this matchCrotone U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.16

1.27

Spezia U19

2.16

Crotone U19

1.27

Spezia U19 creates 70% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 85 away

1.98

creates per match

1.14

1.40

allows per match

2.34

creates per match

Spezia U19

1.98

Crotone U19

1.14

allows per match

Spezia U19

1.40

Crotone U19

2.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spezia U19+0.00on par

Crotone U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spezia U19 ↓

Crotone U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Spezia U19 or draw

78%

Spezia U19 or Crotone U19

79%

Draw or Crotone U19

43%

Winning margin

Spezia U19 wins by 2+

35%

Crotone U19 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Spezia U19 1+ goals

88%

Spezia U19 2+ goals

63%

Spezia U19 3+ goals

36%

Crotone U19 1+ goals

72%

Crotone U19 2+ goals

36%

Crotone U19 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Spezia U19 (draw refunded)

72%

Crotone U19 (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spezia U19 at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.40 · 83 matches

Crotone U19 away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.34 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spezia U19 attack 1.98 + Crotone U19 defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 2.16

Crotone U19 attack 1.14 + Spezia U19 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Spezia U19 scores more

57%

level

21%

Crotone U19 scores more

22%

Spezia U19 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Spezia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff