Speranţa Nisporeni 0–1 Dinamo-Auto: Result & Stats

Speranţa Nisporeni

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Dinamo-Auto

5/30/2019

Super Liga · Round 12Complexul Sportiv Raional (Orhei)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Speranţa Nisporeni35%

×Draw23%

Dinamo-Auto42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Speranţa NisporeniExpected goals in this matchDinamo-Auto

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.69

Speranţa Nisporeni

1.52

Dinamo-Auto

1.69

Dinamo-Auto creates 11% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 56 away

0.79

creates per match

1.34

2.03

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Speranţa Nisporeni

0.79

Dinamo-Auto

1.34

allows per match

Speranţa Nisporeni

2.03

Dinamo-Auto

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Speranţa Nisporeni+0.00on par

Dinamo-Auto+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Speranţa Nisporeni ↓

Dinamo-Auto →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Speranţa Nisporeni or draw

58%

Speranţa Nisporeni or Dinamo-Auto

77%

Draw or Dinamo-Auto

65%

Winning margin

Speranţa Nisporeni wins by 2+

16%

Dinamo-Auto wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Speranţa Nisporeni 1+ goals

78%

Speranţa Nisporeni 2+ goals

45%

Speranţa Nisporeni 3+ goals

20%

Dinamo-Auto 1+ goals

82%

Dinamo-Auto 2+ goals

50%

Dinamo-Auto 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Speranţa Nisporeni (draw refunded)

45%

Dinamo-Auto (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Speranţa Nisporeni at home — creates 0.79, concedes 2.03 · 29 matches

Dinamo-Auto away — creates 1.34, concedes 2.25 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Speranţa Nisporeni attack 0.79 + Dinamo-Auto defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.52

Dinamo-Auto attack 1.34 + Speranţa Nisporeni defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Speranţa Nisporeni scores more

35%

level

23%

Dinamo-Auto scores more

42%

Dinamo-Auto at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Dinamo-Auto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff