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Spartaks Jurmala vs Rīgas FS — Virsliga 2019

Spartaks Jurmala
Spartaks Jurmala
CANC
14:00
Rīgas FS
Rīgas FS
4/8/2021VirsligaVirsliga · Round 4Tukuma mākslīgā laukumā stadions

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Spartaks Jurmala24%
×Draw22%
Rīgas FS55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartaks Jurmala
1.27
Rīgas FS
2.02

Rīgas FS creates 59% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 117 away

creates per match

Spartaks Jurmala
1.63
Rīgas FS
2.26

allows per match

Spartaks Jurmala
1.78
Rīgas FS
0.92

finishing

Spartaks Jurmala+0.00on par
Rīgas FS+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartaks Jurmala ↓

Rīgas FS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Spartaks Jurmala or draw
45%
Spartaks Jurmala or Rīgas FS
78%
Draw or Rīgas FS
76%

Winning margin

Spartaks Jurmala wins by 2+
10%
Rīgas FS wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Spartaks Jurmala 1+ goals
72%
Spartaks Jurmala 2+ goals
36%
Spartaks Jurmala 3+ goals
14%
Rīgas FS 1+ goals
87%
Rīgas FS 2+ goals
60%
Rīgas FS 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Spartaks Jurmala (draw refunded)
30%
Rīgas FS (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartaks Jurmala at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.78 · 49 matches

Rīgas FS away — creates 2.26, concedes 0.92 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartaks Jurmala attack 1.63 + Rīgas FS defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.27

Rīgas FS attack 2.26 + Spartaks Jurmala defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Spartaks Jurmala scores more
24%
level
22%
Rīgas FS scores more
55%

Rīgas FS at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Rīgas FS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Spartaks Jurmala host Rīgas FS

April 8, 2021: Spartaks Jurmala take on Rīgas FS in Virsliga. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Spartaks Jurmala host Rīgas FS at Tukuma mākslīgā laukumā stadions.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.