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Spartaks Jurmala vs FK Ventspils — Virsliga 2019

Spartaks Jurmala
Spartaks Jurmala
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
FK Ventspils
FK Ventspils
8/31/2019VirsligaVirsliga · Round 28Slokas Stadionā (Jūrmala)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Spartaks Jurmala38%
×Draw24%
FK Ventspils37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartaks Jurmala
1.52
FK Ventspils
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 31 away

creates per match

Spartaks Jurmala
1.63
FK Ventspils
1.23

allows per match

Spartaks Jurmala
1.78
FK Ventspils
1.42

finishing

Spartaks Jurmala+0.00on par
FK Ventspils+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartaks Jurmala ↓

FK Ventspils →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Spartaks Jurmala or draw
63%
Spartaks Jurmala or FK Ventspils
76%
Draw or FK Ventspils
62%

Winning margin

Spartaks Jurmala wins by 2+
18%
FK Ventspils wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Spartaks Jurmala 1+ goals
78%
Spartaks Jurmala 2+ goals
45%
Spartaks Jurmala 3+ goals
20%
FK Ventspils 1+ goals
78%
FK Ventspils 2+ goals
44%
FK Ventspils 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Spartaks Jurmala (draw refunded)
51%
FK Ventspils (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartaks Jurmala at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.78 · 49 matches

FK Ventspils away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.42 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartaks Jurmala attack 1.63 + FK Ventspils defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.52

FK Ventspils attack 1.23 + Spartaks Jurmala defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Spartaks Jurmala scores more
38%
level
24%
FK Ventspils scores more
37%

Spartaks Jurmala at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Spartaks Jurmala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Virsliga: Spartaks Jurmala 0–1 FK Ventspils

FK Ventspils beat Spartaks Jurmala 1-0 in Virsliga on August 31, 2019.

The match was played at Slokas Stadionā (Jūrmala).