Spartaks Jurmala 4–2 FK Liepaja: Result & Stats

Spartaks Jurmala

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

FK Liepaja

9/21/2019

Virsliga · Round 30Slokas Stadionā (Jūrmala)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Spartaks Jurmala37%

×Draw24%

FK Liepaja39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartaks JurmalaExpected goals in this matchFK Liepaja

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.61

Spartaks Jurmala

1.55

FK Liepaja

1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 115 away

1.63

creates per match

1.44

1.78

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Spartaks Jurmala

1.63

FK Liepaja

1.44

allows per match

Spartaks Jurmala

1.78

FK Liepaja

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartaks Jurmala+0.00on par

FK Liepaja+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartaks Jurmala ↓

FK Liepaja →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Spartaks Jurmala or draw

61%

Spartaks Jurmala or FK Liepaja

76%

Draw or FK Liepaja

63%

Winning margin

Spartaks Jurmala wins by 2+

18%

FK Liepaja wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Spartaks Jurmala 1+ goals

79%

Spartaks Jurmala 2+ goals

46%

Spartaks Jurmala 3+ goals

20%

FK Liepaja 1+ goals

80%

FK Liepaja 2+ goals

48%

FK Liepaja 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Spartaks Jurmala (draw refunded)

48%

FK Liepaja (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartaks Jurmala at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.78 · 49 matches

FK Liepaja away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.47 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartaks Jurmala attack 1.63 + FK Liepaja defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.55

FK Liepaja attack 1.44 + Spartaks Jurmala defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Spartaks Jurmala scores more

37%

level

24%

FK Liepaja scores more

39%

FK Liepaja at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "FK Liepaja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff