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Spartaks Jurmala vs BFC Daugavpils — Virsliga 2019

Spartaks Jurmala
Spartaks Jurmala
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
BFC Daugavpils
BFC Daugavpils
6/16/2019VirsligaVirsliga · Round 17Slokas Stadionā (Jūrmala)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Spartaks Jurmala47%
×Draw23%
BFC Daugavpils30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartaks Jurmala
1.75
BFC Daugavpils
1.34

Spartaks Jurmala creates 31% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 112 away

creates per match

Spartaks Jurmala
1.63
BFC Daugavpils
0.91

allows per match

Spartaks Jurmala
1.78
BFC Daugavpils
1.86

finishing

Spartaks Jurmala+0.00on par
BFC Daugavpils+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartaks Jurmala ↓

BFC Daugavpils →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Spartaks Jurmala or draw
70%
Spartaks Jurmala or BFC Daugavpils
77%
Draw or BFC Daugavpils
53%

Winning margin

Spartaks Jurmala wins by 2+
25%
BFC Daugavpils wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Spartaks Jurmala 1+ goals
83%
Spartaks Jurmala 2+ goals
52%
Spartaks Jurmala 3+ goals
25%
BFC Daugavpils 1+ goals
74%
BFC Daugavpils 2+ goals
39%
BFC Daugavpils 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Spartaks Jurmala (draw refunded)
61%
BFC Daugavpils (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartaks Jurmala at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.78 · 49 matches

BFC Daugavpils away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.86 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartaks Jurmala attack 1.63 + BFC Daugavpils defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.75

BFC Daugavpils attack 0.91 + Spartaks Jurmala defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Spartaks Jurmala scores more
47%
level
23%
BFC Daugavpils scores more
30%

Spartaks Jurmala at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Spartaks Jurmala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spartaks Jurmala vs BFC Daugavpils

Spartaks Jurmala beat BFC Daugavpils 3-0 in Virsliga on June 16, 2019.

The match was played at Slokas Stadionā (Jūrmala).