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Spartak Varna vs Cherno More Varna — First League 2018

Spartak Varna
Spartak Varna
Preview
16:00
Cherno More Varna
Cherno More Varna
11/21/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 15Stadion Spartak
Big match
38%
Cherno More Varna
model favours
35%27%38%

Cherno More Varna are unbeaten in 6 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Spartak Varna35%
×Draw27%
Cherno More Varna38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Varna
1.19
Cherno More Varna
1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 54 home / 136 away

creates per match

Spartak Varna
1.28
Cherno More Varna
1.06

allows per match

Spartak Varna
1.46
Cherno More Varna
1.10

finishing

Spartak Varna+0.00on par
Cherno More Varna+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Varna ↓

Cherno More Varna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Spartak Varna or draw
62%
Spartak Varna or Cherno More Varna
73%
Draw or Cherno More Varna
65%

Winning margin

Spartak Varna wins by 2+
14%
Cherno More Varna wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Spartak Varna 1+ goals
70%
Spartak Varna 2+ goals
33%
Spartak Varna 3+ goals
12%
Cherno More Varna 1+ goals
72%
Cherno More Varna 2+ goals
36%
Cherno More Varna 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Spartak Varna (draw refunded)
48%
Cherno More Varna (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Varna at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.46 · 54 matches

Cherno More Varna away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.10 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Varna attack 1.28 + Cherno More Varna defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.19

Cherno More Varna attack 1.06 + Spartak Varna defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Spartak Varna scores more
35%
level
27%
Cherno More Varna scores more
38%

Cherno More Varna at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Cherno More Varna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Spartak Varna score first in only 30% of matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Varna
WDLDW
Varna
DDWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Spartak Varna host Cherno More Varna

November 21, 2026: Spartak Varna take on Cherno More Varna in First League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Spartak Varna host Cherno More Varna at Stadion Spartak.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.