Spartak Trnava W 1–1 Ružomberok W: Result & Stats

Spartak Trnava W

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Ružomberok W

11/18/2023

I Liga - Women · Round 13Areal Slavie na Rybniku UT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Spartak Trnava W51%

×Draw20%

Ružomberok W29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartak Trnava WExpected goals in this matchRužomberok W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.42

1.81

Spartak Trnava W

2.42

Ružomberok W

1.81

Spartak Trnava W creates 34% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 65 away

2.82

creates per match

1.85

1.76

allows per match

2.03

creates per match

Spartak Trnava W

2.82

Ružomberok W

1.85

allows per match

Spartak Trnava W

1.76

Ružomberok W

2.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartak Trnava W+0.00on par

Ružomberok W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Trnava W ↓

Ružomberok W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Spartak Trnava W or draw

71%

Spartak Trnava W or Ružomberok W

80%

Draw or Ružomberok W

49%

Winning margin

Spartak Trnava W wins by 2+

31%

Ružomberok W wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Spartak Trnava W 1+ goals

91%

Spartak Trnava W 2+ goals

69%

Spartak Trnava W 3+ goals

43%

Ružomberok W 1+ goals

84%

Ružomberok W 2+ goals

54%

Ružomberok W 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Spartak Trnava W (draw refunded)

64%

Ružomberok W (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Trnava W at home — creates 2.82, concedes 1.76 · 67 matches

Ružomberok W away — creates 1.85, concedes 2.03 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Trnava W attack 2.82 + Ružomberok W defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 2.42

Ružomberok W attack 1.85 + Spartak Trnava W defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Spartak Trnava W scores more

51%

level

20%

Ružomberok W scores more

29%

Spartak Trnava W at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Spartak Trnava W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff