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Spartak Pleven vs Yantra 2019 — Second League 2018

Spartak Pleven
Spartak Pleven
Preview
16:00
Yantra 2019
Yantra 2019
11/28/2026Second LeagueSecond League · Round 18Stadion Pleven
Big match
41%
Spartak Pleven
model favours
41%29%30%

Yantra 2019 score first in only 20% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
62%
under 2.5 goals
44%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Spartak Pleven41%
×Draw29%
Yantra 201930%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Pleven
1.21
Yantra 2019
1.00

Spartak Pleven creates 21% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 100 away

creates per match

Spartak Pleven
1.20
Yantra 2019
0.95

allows per match

Spartak Pleven
1.06
Yantra 2019
1.21

finishing

Spartak Pleven+0.00on par
Yantra 2019+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Pleven ↓

Yantra 2019 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Spartak Pleven or draw
70%
Spartak Pleven or Yantra 2019
71%
Draw or Yantra 2019
59%

Winning margin

Spartak Pleven wins by 2+
18%
Yantra 2019 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Spartak Pleven 1+ goals
70%
Spartak Pleven 2+ goals
34%
Spartak Pleven 3+ goals
12%
Yantra 2019 1+ goals
63%
Yantra 2019 2+ goals
26%
Yantra 2019 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Spartak Pleven (draw refunded)
57%
Yantra 2019 (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Pleven at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.06 · 80 matches

Yantra 2019 away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.21 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Pleven attack 1.20 + Yantra 2019 defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.21

Yantra 2019 attack 0.95 + Spartak Pleven defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Spartak Pleven scores more
41%
level
29%
Yantra 2019 scores more
30%

Spartak Pleven at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Spartak Pleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Spartak Pleven score first in only 27% of matches
  • Both teams score in 80% of Yantra 2019’s matches
  • 70% of Yantra 2019’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in 73% of Spartak Pleven’s matches
  • Spartak Pleven sit 12, Yantra 2019 2 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Pleven
LLWLL
2019
DLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Spartak Pleven face Yantra 2019 (Second League)

Second League returns with Spartak Pleven hosting Yantra 2019. Match starts November 28, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Spartak Pleven host Yantra 2019 at Stadion Pleven.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.