Spartak Pleven 2–2 Yantra 2019: Result & Stats

Spartak Pleven

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Yantra 2019

T. Ivanov 88'

S. Hristov 65'

V. Hristov 90+5'

I. Vasilev 23'

7/31/2022

Second League · Round 3Pleven Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Spartak Pleven41%

×Draw29%

Yantra 201930%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartak PlevenExpected goals in this matchYantra 2019

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.00

Spartak Pleven

1.21

Yantra 2019

1.00

Spartak Pleven creates 21% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 100 away

1.20

creates per match

0.95

1.06

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Spartak Pleven

1.20

Yantra 2019

0.95

allows per match

Spartak Pleven

1.06

Yantra 2019

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartak Pleven+0.00on par

Yantra 2019+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Pleven ↓

Yantra 2019 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Spartak Pleven or draw

70%

Spartak Pleven or Yantra 2019

71%

Draw or Yantra 2019

59%

Winning margin

Spartak Pleven wins by 2+

18%

Yantra 2019 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Spartak Pleven 1+ goals

70%

Spartak Pleven 2+ goals

34%

Spartak Pleven 3+ goals

12%

Yantra 2019 1+ goals

63%

Yantra 2019 2+ goals

26%

Yantra 2019 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Spartak Pleven (draw refunded)

57%

Yantra 2019 (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Pleven at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.06 · 80 matches

Yantra 2019 away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.21 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Pleven attack 1.20 + Yantra 2019 defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.21

Yantra 2019 attack 0.95 + Spartak Pleven defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Spartak Pleven scores more

41%

level

29%

Yantra 2019 scores more

30%

Spartak Pleven at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Spartak Pleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

23'

I. Vasilev

26'

34'

46'

T. Ivanov← L. Kovachev

46'

V. Makaveev← I. Bakalski

48'

53'

65'

S. Hristov

69'

72'

I. Petkov← E. Kolev

76'

85'

D. Kalchev← A. Georgiev

86'

87'

G. Nedkov← I. Ivanov

87'

M. Angelov← K. Ivanov

88'

T. Ivanov

90+2'

K. Ivanov← B. Karamfilov

90+5'

V. Hristov

Spartak

Yantra

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: K. Bislimov

46'▲T. Ivanov←▼L. Kovachev

46'▲V. Makaveev←▼I. Bakalski

85'▲D. Kalchev←▼A. Georgiev

90+2'▲K. Ivanov←▼B. Karamfilov

Spartak Pleven substitutes

IvanovMakaveevKalchevIvanovVasilevMakaveevBozhinov

Manager: S. Angelov

72'▲I. Petkov←▼E. Kolev

87'▲G. Nedkov←▼I. Ivanov

87'▲M. Angelov←▼K. Ivanov

Yantra 2019 substitutes

PetkovNedkovAngelovPisarovVachevIvanovTurlakov

Match Recap: Spartak Pleven vs Yantra 2019

Spartak Pleven and Yantra 2019 drew 2-2 in Second League on July 31, 2022.

Goals: I. Vasilev (23'), S. Hristov (65'), T. Ivanov (88'), V. Hristov (90+5').

The match was played at Pleven Stadium in Pleven.

Spartak Pleven vs Yantra 2019 — Second League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Spartak Pleven vs Yantra 2019