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Spartak Nalchik vs Legion Dynamo — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Spartak Nalchik
Spartak Nalchik
FT
2 – 5
Legion Dynamo
Legion Dynamo
2/16/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Spartak Nalchik26%
×Draw19%
Legion Dynamo55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Nalchik
1.83
Legion Dynamo
2.67

Legion Dynamo creates 46% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Spartak Nalchik
2.00
Legion Dynamo
3.00

allows per match

Spartak Nalchik
2.33
Legion Dynamo
1.67

finishing

Spartak Nalchik+0.00on par
Legion Dynamo+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Nalchik ↓

Legion Dynamo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–27%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Spartak Nalchik or draw
45%
Spartak Nalchik or Legion Dynamo
81%
Draw or Legion Dynamo
74%

Winning margin

Spartak Nalchik wins by 2+
13%
Legion Dynamo wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Spartak Nalchik 1+ goals
84%
Spartak Nalchik 2+ goals
54%
Spartak Nalchik 3+ goals
28%
Legion Dynamo 1+ goals
93%
Legion Dynamo 2+ goals
74%
Legion Dynamo 3+ goals
49%

Draw no bet

Spartak Nalchik (draw refunded)
32%
Legion Dynamo (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Nalchik at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Legion Dynamo away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Nalchik attack 2.00 + Legion Dynamo defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

Legion Dynamo attack 3.00 + Spartak Nalchik defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Spartak Nalchik scores more
26%
level
19%
Legion Dynamo scores more
55%

Legion Dynamo at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Legion Dynamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Spartak Nalchik 2–5 Legion Dynamo

Legion Dynamo beat Spartak Nalchik 5-2 in Friendlies Clubs on February 16, 2021.