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Spartak Moskva U20 vs Ufa U20 — Youth Championship 2026

Spartak Moskva U20
Spartak Moskva U20
PST
00:00
Ufa U20
Ufa U20
4/4/2020Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 24

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Spartak Moskva U2064%
×Draw19%
Ufa U2017%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Moskva U20
2.30
Ufa U20
1.11

Spartak Moskva U20 creates 107% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 40 away

creates per match

Spartak Moskva U20
2.35
Ufa U20
0.97

allows per match

Spartak Moskva U20
1.25
Ufa U20
2.25

finishing

Spartak Moskva U20+0.00on par
Ufa U20+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Moskva U20 ↓

Ufa U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Spartak Moskva U20 or draw
83%
Spartak Moskva U20 or Ufa U20
81%
Draw or Ufa U20
36%

Winning margin

Spartak Moskva U20 wins by 2+
41%
Ufa U20 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Spartak Moskva U20 1+ goals
90%
Spartak Moskva U20 2+ goals
67%
Spartak Moskva U20 3+ goals
40%
Ufa U20 1+ goals
67%
Ufa U20 2+ goals
30%
Ufa U20 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Spartak Moskva U20 (draw refunded)
79%
Ufa U20 (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Moskva U20 at home — creates 2.35, concedes 1.25 · 20 matches

Ufa U20 away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.25 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Moskva U20 attack 2.35 + Ufa U20 defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.30

Ufa U20 attack 0.97 + Spartak Moskva U20 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Spartak Moskva U20 scores more
64%
level
19%
Ufa U20 scores more
17%

Spartak Moskva U20 at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Spartak Moskva U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Spartak Moskva U20 face Ufa U20 (Youth Championship)

Youth Championship returns with Spartak Moskva U20 hosting Ufa U20. Match starts April 4, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.