Spartak Moscow 2–2 PFC Sochi: Result & Stats

Spartak Moscow

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

PFC Sochi

8/9/2020

Premier League · Round 1Otkrytiye Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Spartak Moscow52%

×Draw24%

PFC Sochi24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartak MoscowExpected goals in this matchPFC Sochi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.06

Spartak Moscow

1.69

PFC Sochi

1.06

Spartak Moscow creates 59% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 89 away

1.72

creates per match

1.08

1.04

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Spartak Moscow

1.72

PFC Sochi

1.08

allows per match

Spartak Moscow

1.04

PFC Sochi

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartak Moscow+0.00on par

PFC Sochi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Moscow ↓

PFC Sochi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Spartak Moscow or draw

76%

Spartak Moscow or PFC Sochi

76%

Draw or PFC Sochi

48%

Winning margin

Spartak Moscow wins by 2+

28%

PFC Sochi wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Spartak Moscow 1+ goals

82%

Spartak Moscow 2+ goals

50%

Spartak Moscow 3+ goals

24%

PFC Sochi 1+ goals

65%

PFC Sochi 2+ goals

29%

PFC Sochi 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Spartak Moscow (draw refunded)

69%

PFC Sochi (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Moscow at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.04 · 120 matches

PFC Sochi away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.66 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Moscow attack 1.72 + PFC Sochi defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.69

PFC Sochi attack 1.08 + Spartak Moscow defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Spartak Moscow scores more

52%

level

24%

PFC Sochi scores more

24%

Spartak Moscow at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Spartak Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff