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Spartak Moscow vs Krasnodar — Cup 2019

Spartak Moscow
Spartak Moscow
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Krasnodar
Krasnodar
11/1/2023CupCup · Premier League Path - Group Stage - 5Otkritie Bank Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Spartak Moscow53%
×Draw22%
Krasnodar25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Moscow
1.92
Krasnodar
1.24

Spartak Moscow creates 55% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 21 away

creates per match

Spartak Moscow
2.42
Krasnodar
1.48

allows per match

Spartak Moscow
1.00
Krasnodar
1.43

finishing

Spartak Moscow+0.00on par
Krasnodar+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Moscow ↓

Krasnodar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Spartak Moscow or draw
75%
Spartak Moscow or Krasnodar
78%
Draw or Krasnodar
47%

Winning margin

Spartak Moscow wins by 2+
30%
Krasnodar wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Spartak Moscow 1+ goals
85%
Spartak Moscow 2+ goals
57%
Spartak Moscow 3+ goals
30%
Krasnodar 1+ goals
71%
Krasnodar 2+ goals
35%
Krasnodar 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Spartak Moscow (draw refunded)
68%
Krasnodar (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Moscow at home — creates 2.42, concedes 1.00 · 26 matches

Krasnodar away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.43 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Moscow attack 2.42 + Krasnodar defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.92

Krasnodar attack 1.48 + Spartak Moscow defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Spartak Moscow scores more
53%
level
22%
Krasnodar scores more
25%

Spartak Moscow at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Spartak Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Spartak Moscow 2–3 Krasnodar

Krasnodar beat Spartak Moscow 3-2 in Cup on November 1, 2023.

The match was played at Otkritie Bank Arena in Moskva.