Spartak Moscow 2 0–3 FK Neftekhimik: Result & Stats

Spartak Moscow 2

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

FK Neftekhimik

M. Uridia 24'

D. Makarov 23'

I. Petrov 10'

9/21/2019

First League · Round 14Futbol'noe pole 4 Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Spartak Moscow 237%

×Draw27%

FK Neftekhimik37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartak Moscow 2Expected goals in this matchFK Neftekhimik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

Spartak Moscow 2

1.27

FK Neftekhimik

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 72 home / 123 away

1.39

creates per match

1.11

1.44

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Spartak Moscow 2

1.39

FK Neftekhimik

1.11

allows per match

Spartak Moscow 2

1.44

FK Neftekhimik

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartak Moscow 2+0.00on par

FK Neftekhimik+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Moscow 2 ↓

FK Neftekhimik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Spartak Moscow 2 or draw

63%

Spartak Moscow 2 or FK Neftekhimik

73%

Draw or FK Neftekhimik

63%

Winning margin

Spartak Moscow 2 wins by 2+

16%

FK Neftekhimik wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Spartak Moscow 2 1+ goals

72%

Spartak Moscow 2 2+ goals

36%

Spartak Moscow 2 3+ goals

14%

FK Neftekhimik 1+ goals

72%

FK Neftekhimik 2+ goals

36%

FK Neftekhimik 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Spartak Moscow 2 (draw refunded)

50%

FK Neftekhimik (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Moscow 2 at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.44 · 72 matches

FK Neftekhimik away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.16 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Moscow 2 attack 1.39 + FK Neftekhimik defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.27

FK Neftekhimik attack 1.11 + Spartak Moscow 2 defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Spartak Moscow 2 scores more

37%

level

27%

FK Neftekhimik scores more

37%

Spartak Moscow 2 at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Spartak Moscow 2 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

19'

23'

24'

26'

27'

33'

46'

D. Markitesov← A. Rudenko

46'

M. Danilin← S. Bakaev

46'

V. Galiulin← P. Shadrin

67'

V. Vasiljev← N. Umyarov

67'

Idrisa Sambú← M. Glushenkov

71'

D. Michurenkov← M. Uridia

75'

D. Petrunin

75'

A. Kireev← D. Khubaev

77'

R. Abdullin← D. Makarov

83'

D. Kaykov← I. Petrov

Spartak

FK

27

17

5

4

12

22

7

▼

Shadrin

13

▼

Khubaev

95

⚽

▼

Petrov

10

⚽

▼

Uridia

25

⚽

▼

27

36

67

63

96

17

▼

Bakaev

15

▼

Glushenko

54

▼

Umyarov

80

Bakalyuk

66

Nimely

79

▼

Rudenko

Manager: V. Bulatov

46'▲D. Markitesov←▼A. Rudenko

46'▲M. Danilin←▼S. Bakaev

67'▲V. Vasiljev←▼N. Umyarov

67'▲Idrisa Sambú←▼M. Glushenkov

Spartak Moscow 2 substitutes

74Markitesov78Danilin42Vasiljev45Sambú28Tiub31Shitov68Litvinov

Manager: Y. Utkulbaev

46'▲V. Galiulin←▼P. Shadrin

71'▲D. Michurenkov←▼M. Uridia

75'▲A. Kireev←▼D. Khubaev

77'▲R. Abdullin←▼D. Makarov

83'▲D. Kaykov←▼I. Petrov

FK Neftekhimik substitutes

20Galiulin19Michurenkov88Kireev33Abdullin21Kaykov6Vasiev8Galiakberov9Antonov18Isupov

First League: Spartak Moscow 2 0–3 FK Neftekhimik

FK Neftekhimik beat Spartak Moscow 2 3-0 in First League on September 21, 2019.

Goals: I. Petrov (10'), D. Makarov (23'), M. Uridia (24').

The match was played at Futbol'noe pole 4 Spartak in Moskva.

Spartak Moscow 2 vs FK Neftekhimik — First League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

First League: Spartak Moscow 2 0–3 FK Neftekhimik