Spartak Kostroma vs Tekstilshchik

Spartak Kostroma

Preview

15:00

Tekstilshchik

5/29/2027

First League · Round 34Stadion Urozhay

Big match

52%

Spartak Kostroma

model favours

52%26%21%

Tekstilshchik score first in only 21% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0

likely score

59%

under 2.5 goals

44%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Spartak Kostroma52%

×Draw26%

Tekstilshchik21%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartak KostromaExpected goals in this matchTekstilshchik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.83

Spartak Kostroma

1.48

Tekstilshchik

0.83

Spartak Kostroma creates 78% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 9 away

1.28

creates per match

0.67

1.00

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Spartak Kostroma

1.28

Tekstilshchik

0.67

allows per match

Spartak Kostroma

1.00

Tekstilshchik

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartak Kostroma+0.00on par

Tekstilshchik+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Kostroma ↓

Tekstilshchik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Spartak Kostroma or draw

79%

Spartak Kostroma or Tekstilshchik

74%

Draw or Tekstilshchik

48%

Winning margin

Spartak Kostroma wins by 2+

27%

Tekstilshchik wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Spartak Kostroma 1+ goals

77%

Spartak Kostroma 2+ goals

43%

Spartak Kostroma 3+ goals

19%

Tekstilshchik 1+ goals

56%

Tekstilshchik 2+ goals

20%

Tekstilshchik 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Spartak Kostroma (draw refunded)

71%

Tekstilshchik (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Kostroma at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.00 · 18 matches

Tekstilshchik away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Kostroma attack 1.28 + Tekstilshchik defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.48

Tekstilshchik attack 0.67 + Spartak Kostroma defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Spartak Kostroma scores more

52%

level

26%

Tekstilshchik scores more

21%

Spartak Kostroma at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Spartak Kostroma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Tekstilshchik have scored in 7 games running

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

Kostroma

WLLDD

Tekstilshchik

LLWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff