Spartak Kostroma vs Nizhny Novgorod

Spartak Kostroma

Preview

16:00

Nizhny Novgorod

11/7/2026

First League · Round 17Stadion Urozhay

Big match

37%

Spartak Kostroma

model favours

37%30%33%

Top-of-the-table clash — Spartak Kostroma 4 vs Nizhny Novgorod 2

brightest fact of this match

1–0

likely score

66%

under 2.5 goals

42%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Spartak Kostroma37%

×Draw30%

Nizhny Novgorod33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartak KostromaExpected goals in this matchNizhny Novgorod

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.00

Spartak Kostroma

1.08

Nizhny Novgorod

1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 8 away

1.28

creates per match

1.00

allows per match

0.88

creates per match

Spartak Kostroma

1.28

Nizhny Novgorod

1.00

allows per match

Spartak Kostroma

1.00

Nizhny Novgorod

0.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartak Kostroma+0.00on par

Nizhny Novgorod+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Kostroma ↓

Nizhny Novgorod →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Spartak Kostroma or draw

67%

Spartak Kostroma or Nizhny Novgorod

70%

Draw or Nizhny Novgorod

63%

Winning margin

Spartak Kostroma wins by 2+

15%

Nizhny Novgorod wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Spartak Kostroma 1+ goals

66%

Spartak Kostroma 2+ goals

29%

Spartak Kostroma 3+ goals

10%

Nizhny Novgorod 1+ goals

63%

Nizhny Novgorod 2+ goals

26%

Nizhny Novgorod 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Spartak Kostroma (draw refunded)

53%

Nizhny Novgorod (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Kostroma at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.00 · 18 matches

Nizhny Novgorod away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Kostroma attack 1.28 + Nizhny Novgorod defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.08

Nizhny Novgorod attack 1.00 + Spartak Kostroma defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Spartak Kostroma scores more

37%

level

30%

Nizhny Novgorod scores more

33%

Spartak Kostroma at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Spartak Kostroma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Spartak Kostroma and Nizhny Novgorod have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

Kostroma

WLLDD

Novgorod

WLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff