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Spartak Kostroma vs FC UFA — First League 2024

Spartak Kostroma
Spartak Kostroma
Preview
15:00
FC UFA
FC UFA
8/15/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 6Stadion Urozhay
Big match
48%
Spartak Kostroma
model favours
48%29%24%

Top-of-the-table clash — Spartak Kostroma 4 vs FC UFA 1

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
64%
under 2.5 goals
41%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Spartak Kostroma48%
×Draw29%
FC UFA24%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Kostroma
1.30
FC UFA
0.82

Spartak Kostroma creates 59% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 34 away

creates per match

Spartak Kostroma
1.28
FC UFA
0.65

allows per match

Spartak Kostroma
1.00
FC UFA
1.32

finishing

Spartak Kostroma+0.00on par
FC UFA+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Kostroma ↓

FC UFA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Spartak Kostroma or draw
76%
Spartak Kostroma or FC UFA
71%
Draw or FC UFA
52%

Winning margin

Spartak Kostroma wins by 2+
22%
FC UFA wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Spartak Kostroma 1+ goals
73%
Spartak Kostroma 2+ goals
37%
Spartak Kostroma 3+ goals
14%
FC UFA 1+ goals
56%
FC UFA 2+ goals
20%
FC UFA 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Spartak Kostroma (draw refunded)
67%
FC UFA (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Kostroma at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.00 · 18 matches

FC UFA away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.32 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Kostroma attack 1.28 + FC UFA defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.30

FC UFA attack 0.65 + Spartak Kostroma defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Spartak Kostroma scores more
48%
level
29%
FC UFA scores more
24%

Spartak Kostroma at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Spartak Kostroma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Their last 5 meetings averaged just 1.2 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Kostroma
WLLDD
UFA
WLLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Spartak Kostroma host FC UFA

August 15, 2026: Spartak Kostroma take on FC UFA in First League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Spartak Kostroma host FC UFA at Stadion Urozhay.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.