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Spartak Kostroma vs FC Sochi — First League 2024

Spartak Kostroma
Spartak Kostroma
Preview
16:00
FC Sochi
FC Sochi
3/13/2027First LeagueFirst League · Round 23Stadion Urozhay
42%
Spartak Kostroma
model favours
42%28%31%

FC Sochi win just 31% against the top half (vs 58% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Spartak Kostroma42%
×Draw28%
FC Sochi31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Kostroma
1.30
FC Sochi
1.08

Spartak Kostroma creates 20% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 19 away

creates per match

Spartak Kostroma
1.28
FC Sochi
1.16

allows per match

Spartak Kostroma
1.00
FC Sochi
1.32

finishing

Spartak Kostroma+0.00on par
FC Sochi+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Kostroma ↓

FC Sochi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Spartak Kostroma or draw
69%
Spartak Kostroma or FC Sochi
72%
Draw or FC Sochi
58%

Winning margin

Spartak Kostroma wins by 2+
19%
FC Sochi wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Spartak Kostroma 1+ goals
73%
Spartak Kostroma 2+ goals
37%
Spartak Kostroma 3+ goals
14%
FC Sochi 1+ goals
66%
FC Sochi 2+ goals
29%
FC Sochi 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Spartak Kostroma (draw refunded)
57%
FC Sochi (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Kostroma at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.00 · 18 matches

FC Sochi away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Kostroma attack 1.28 + FC Sochi defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.30

FC Sochi attack 1.16 + Spartak Kostroma defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Spartak Kostroma scores more
42%
level
28%
FC Sochi scores more
31%

Spartak Kostroma at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Spartak Kostroma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Kostroma
WLLDD
Sochi
DLWDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Spartak Kostroma face FC Sochi (First League)

First League returns with Spartak Kostroma hosting FC Sochi. Match starts March 13, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Spartak Kostroma host FC Sochi at Stadion Urozhay.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.